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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  October 23, 2012 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT

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me upset, believe it or not. >> thank you so much. again, the dow down 243. we'll see what the afternoon brings. that does it for us on "squawk on the street." we'll send it to simon, back at post 9 for the "fast money halftime. kwlt >> this is it. welcome to the halftime report. i'm simon hobbs in for scott wagner. stocks plunging on weak earnings so far today. let's check the major averages. led lower by materials and energy. not far off our lows for the session overall. dupont having its worst day in more than two years. 3m also p ddropping on a disappointing outlook. trading all the big moves with josh brown, guy adami and joe terra nova. joe, keep up with you. how are you playing the market now? >> sitting and waiting. a lot of the buy and hold crowd is going to tell you how cheap the market is. this is what you've been waiting for. this is not what you've been
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waiting for. friday you had a sell signal. you had a technical sell signal. the earnings are lousy. fundamentally the market doesn't look as good as it did. for the very first time since late july, the onus is on the bulls to tell the market something they don't already know. you want to be long the market. you just want to wait here and don't want to buy the down tape. >> that's not your thought at this stage that the market is done going down. you want to trade sideways. >> i'm more inclined to believe there's tremendous selling pressure. you have two weeks of uncertainty heading into this election. if you're a pm, if you're a money manager, now that the market's rolled over, what's your inclination to come back in again ahead of the election? >> brian kelly, what are you doing? is >> i'm with joe here. you need to be very cautious and nimble in this market. from 2009 up to september 13th, 2012, this market has been driven by policy. it has tramped fundamentals. that process may be reversing here. i'm not sure yet, but i don't see any reason to go jumping in
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and buy right here. at the same time, maybe 20 points lower, 20 handles lower in the s&p, i might dip my toe in. for now, cautious and nimble is the way to be. >> brian, hasn't the fed -- don't we have a bernanke put here? don't we know the federal reserve needs to keep the market up? and it will do whatever it has to ultimately, even if that's more come tomorrow. >> we do know that, but the market doesn't seem to be believing that right now, and that's all that really matters to me is whether the market believes it or not. if the market lose the confidence in the fed's ability to keep asset prices higher, then there's not much fundamentally in the market to really hold it up at these prices. >> josh, does the market go higher or lower from here? >> i don't know. i think the key here is to keep in mind what you're investing for and what your time frame is. anyone that believed that this rally was driven by fundamentals has now been carried out feet first. the case where bulls would say,
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well, everyone is going to chase for performance, just buy everything. that's been discredited. simon, you don't want to jump out a window. this has been the most well-telegraphed earnings season in a long time. we all know it wasn't going to be great. now we see how people are reacting. the one thing i would say, keep in mind, all of these companies giving us dire warnings and reports, keep one thing in mind. more than 50% of their revenues come from overseas. if you can focus away from companies that need global growth to do well, you can still stay long this market, but you have to be more selective than you had to be from the first week of june. >> i need more from you for that. i've got brian telling me the general confidence in this market may be eastbounding. -- ebbing. i need to know if this is the beginning of a global selloff. >> what drove prices in june -- by the way, the vix is up 30% over the last two days. if you think that's going to
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continue over the next two days, i would be shocked. what i would basically say to that case where the market is all of a sudden losing confidence in the fed, i think it's a little premature. i think the bottom line is this, when the dust settles and everyone gets accustomed to the fact this is a very terrible earnings season, the next thing is we have to buy something. we have to do something. we have argued stay defensive. stay away from cyclicals. don't chase the coal rally. don't chase the oil rally. buy things with high dividends, good cash flow, that do not need big revenues from europe and asia. you should be okay. >> simon -- >> health care. >> what would you buy? >> we're overweight housing related stocks. we're overweight health care. >> guy, we haven't heard from you. what about you? >> that's where the pms are going to go with fresh cash, and that's where the people that have been waiting for this dip. they're going to look for strength, and they're going to look for areas that are not tied to a raging rocking and rolling economy in china and europe. >> guy adami. >> hi, simon. >> i think we're in a new range. i think we've done a good be jo of identifying the ranges we've
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been in. 1425 on s&p. resistance on the way up and ert intoed on the way and supported on the way down a few times. at some point we're going to test 1379. but i also think we're going to retest this 1425 level at some point as well. i'm slightly more cataclysmic than everyone else, i think, but i also respect the price action. the navy was the theme in this debate. if you want to use a naval term, sometimes you need to clear the baffles. today is a day to look at what you own and say, do i still want to be in this marketplace? why do i think i'm slightly more cataclysmic? >> that's a big word to use. >> thank you. i can't spell it, but i can use it. the market rally has been predicated on a fed that's been, to me, overly accommodative. it should be predicated on the four pillars of the market, which are earnings, earnings growth, revenue, revenue growth, and it's just not there. if you want to go home and
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believe the fed will make everything go away and calm, asage the market disbelief, that's fine. i think at a certain point the fed doesn't work, and i think we're unfortunately getting close to that point. >> guy, i'm tlit eddelighted toe to the program, mike santoni. mike is joining yahoo finance today from barron's, and you'll note he has two decades of experience. we have a dedication to sharing editorial content, so i guess we'll be seeing a lot of you. you're actually more sanguine and relaxed about what's going on, particularly the election and the fiscal cliff. >> i think the uncertainty bubble is a bit of an excuse for what we're seeing here with companies and the market as a whole. this vague cloud of uncertainty everybody keeps pointing to, it really can be explained by the global slowdown, by recession in europe, by a china slowdown, which by the way, the stocks exposed to that have seen
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already. what i am a little more calm about is the idea that most of this uncertainty has probably peaked. the market has absorbed the idea we have this fiscal cliff. i think this election, the stakes for the economy and the markets in the intermediate term are so far lower than is being commonly thought main by because your worst fear, if it you're a democrat or a republican about what the other guy is going to do, they can't pay for it. in other words, i don't think we're seeing a big swing factor in terms of the economy next year. it doesn't mean it's good. it's a decisive difference. >> i thought you were going to say what goldman said at the end of last week, which is this is all due to the major bursting of the bubbles that we had. >> sure. >> you also said you factored in the election results because goldman was saying, unh-unh, fiscal cliff is something we haven't got in the market yet, but we may have it. >> i don't know if i filtered it in, but you can actually make a probablistic estimate of what's going to happen dollar-wise. it's not an up/down thing.
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it's not something that's either this tremendous immediate disaster overnight or it's nothing happened. it's kind of an incremental drag on the economy. >> unless it's part of a loss of confidence. and what's caught a lot of people's attention today is the idea that in two weeks time, if romney wins, suddenly we have a man who's going to try to push the federal reserve away from helicopter ben. and therefore the market quite legitimately should factor that in 18 months down the line suddenly when bernanke isn't there, and so rates should move. that's what's in the new york times today. >> what world have we all lived in that a potential change in monetary philosophy 14, 18 months away is somehow massive uncertainty? normally in this market, we deal with fed policy being a question mark. >> they're not going to pump the economy anymore. >> joe, let me ask you this way. let's put on our money manager hats for a second. here's the uncertainty. if you're in fixed income right now, what do you do? you have a ten-year treasury today that i think is somewhere around 1.76.
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that bond yield should be lower. you should be seeing more buying in fixed income today. the chance may be that equities go down and fixed income go down at the same time. what's going to unfold here? is it safe to be in fixed income? i think it drives whatever the next equities move is going to be. >> i think there's a risk that perceived safety isn't what people think it is. therefore, fixed income isn't the place to be. i think we need perspective. we're riding one of the largest stretches of the market without a 5% pullback in the last decade. it seems pretty bad. we're not yet down 5% from the highs. when you see dow components start to acknowledge, hey, maybe the next quarter doesn't look solid, that's not the leading edge of the fundamental uncertainty curve that we necessarily worry about. >> it is if the economic environment is deteriorating, and dupont is beginning to lay off jobs, and now other people going to start another round of job cuts. if that's what we're going to
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see around the world, that is new, and that is scary. >> is it deteriorating or bel e belated knowledge that we've had deterioration over the summer. >> brian, are you asaged at all by what you've heard? >> no. i do think the federal reserve policy in this case, 14, 18 months down the line, is extremely important in this case because it's been unprecedented. we have so much money pumping into this economy. it's so important to this market if we have that. like i said, i want to be clear. i'm not saying that confidence is waning, but i'm saying, if it does, and that process that's worked over the last two, three years reverses itself, and we've got serious problems here. i would agree with joe. we should have bond yields much lower today. seems to me we're getting a move away from p kacapital markets i general. >> mike, welcome to the fold. let's get a market flash with bertha coombs. one of the stocks bucking
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the trend today is coach. it posted earnings that were a penny better. top line growth looks good, built on strength here and sales in the u.s. and in china. those men's goods continue to be very strong, simon. lou frankfurt saying they are now the leader when it comes to men's market things. i know that guy adami is a big man purse guy. >> i have different color purses. it's fantastic. go out on a saturday and cruise around downtown. >> you should really pair them with the new lumina phones from nokia. nice color combinations. >> you're assuming i haven't done that already, wise guy. >> i assume a lot. guy, let's go round the horn and trade where we are at the moment. guy, let me kick off with you. where are you? what is the trade now as you come into the market? >> i'll be serious. you've got to trade the ranges that have been presented to you. we're going to revisit 1325 at some point and test the lower end of my range, which is 1379.
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what still works on this market. you've been on the back of yahoo. that stock is trading well again today. the risk/reward for yahoo sets up extraordinarily well. major pharma still trades well. they've gotten a tad ahead of themselves, but i still love eli lilly. that stock has a lot of room on the upside. although home depot sold off recently, regardless of what you think about the broader market, that story remains intact in terms of the housing market we're facing now. >> plenty more on the halftime report ahead, including the race to claim your smartphone. does facebook have what it takes to monetize mobile users? some answers as the company gets ready to release earnings. first, apple's event about 45 minutes away. cnbc's john forts is there on location. hi, john. >> if you're looking for something to distract you from this market action, an event coming up here, could be big for apple in the form of a small tablet. might even be small enough, guy,
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rough day for the market. dow down 231. let's look at oil, falling close to 3% today and hitting its lowest intraday level. >> if you want to be in oil, be defensive. do not go into what's perceived as an underperformer. oil equities have had a horrible year so far. you want to own exxon mobile, that's all right. be defensive. don't go for the beta names. oil futures, take it off your screen. it doesn't matter. it's in a trading range. >> tablet wars heating up again. apple is set to unveil a less expensive and smaller version of its popular ipad tablet this afternoon. let's bring in cnbc's brian sullivan and john fort, we, whoe
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outside the apple event. it's a big day, guys. >> it is, simon. what we're looking for is something between this, the ipad available now, and this, the iphone 4. i know i'm old school. i haven't paid to upgrade to the 5. we're looking for something in the middle, maybe closer to this. the rumor is a 7.8-inch screen. here's what we care about. the market is falling again today. yesterday apple dragged everybody kicking and screaming up, finishing up 4%. is what we're going to hear in there going to be enough to help apple, to help the whole market? >> i think there are a couple of keys to that, and we'll see if they are enough. one is pricing. will apple price this aggressively enough that it will pull people into the market? but the other thipg on the other side, will they leave enough room for them to actually make a good profit on this thing? you don't want to see them price it so cheaply that they look desperate. and then the other thing is, when you look at the applications and the services that they pair with it, apple's strength is its ecosystem.
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that's what it has over amazon, over barnes and noble, over google with the nexus 7. you want to see them building more of a services and software ecosystem around this to support it. >> let's not forget, guys. from a stock perspective, this is not just about apple. this is not just about the market. it is also about amazon. apple, if they unveil this, seem to be going after the google, the nexus 7 tablet, the nook. you referenced barnes and noble. it's not just an apple story. there are many companies that have a keen interest on what apple says and possibly unveils today. >> and it's particularly dangerous for those companies because their strategy right now is zero margin hardware. they expect to make money on service sales on retail sales, on digital media sales after this purchase. if apple blows their hardware out of the water here, it's possible they could end up with inventory of zero margin hardware on hand, and then who knows? you could end up taking a loss in that type of situation. >> very quickly, what else could
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we possibly hear today mini? >> we could see a macbook pro, itunes, something like that. >> but ipad is where the attention is going to be. they want to capture someone maybe at an early age, lower price point, and then they're an apple customer. they're going to hook them and reel them in. we're here all day. >> you guys are ready to rock and roll. coverage kicks off at 1:00 eastern on the power lunch and then into street signs. guys, thank you very much for the view outside the apple event on the west coast as we await presumably the ipad mini launch. let's trade it. let's trade apple and the ecosystem. josh brown, are you a buyer here of apple? >> we have a lone position. i'll tell you that more torre important to apple is the nasdaq. nasdaq may be 10 or 12 points from the 200-day moving average. it hasn't been this close since
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june 5th or june 9th. what transpires today is a lot bigger than just apple. obviously, this stock is very important for many other tech stocks. for that reason alone, i think it deserves the emphasis we're giving it. >> guy, would you trade it? >> yeah, trade it. thank you, simon, for using thatrd would. trade it, absolutely. yesterday is an interesting reversal day. yesterday's low, 610 is sort of your pivot, your bogey, and you trade it against that. for all you investors out there that keep saying -- and you hear it over and over again. i've been waiting for the dip in apple. you finally get it. when it looks so scary that you don't -- this has been what you're waiting for. i don't want to hear that you never have an opportunity because here's an opportunity. for traders out there, use 610 as your pivot point. >> okay. let's move on. wall street is looking for any signs of a spark in facebook's revenue growth when the social networking company delivers its third quarter earnings tonight. investors want to know clearly if facebook will be able to cash in increasingly on its 1 billion
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users, especially, you know this really well, on mobile. joining us now with an earnings preview is analyst at wedge partners. nice to have you, sir. what's your view? how are you positioned going into tonight? >> you know, i think actually facebook is doing better than the general consensus opinion is out there in terms of their monetizing mobile specifically. you brought that up. a missing point in this is there's a big difference between a tablet and a smartphone. you've been talking about the mini ipad coming out. you can actually get higher rates on a tablet, pretty substantially, closer to a desktop, and facebook has a lot of that in terms of platform. i'm looking for a comment that will come out of sheryl sandberg probably more than mark zuckerberg, what their run rates are. >> presumably, the bulls will be
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open to getting an announcement about the new technology, like the gifting button that's been talked about recently. would you expect that to come through at earnings? is >> you know, i think it's quite possible. it's the want button that's been referred to. it's been out there in terms of trial, and certain people have had access to it. that's the key feeling going forward. there's this general feeling that facebook is about social and people chatting. they're not looking to buy something. if you have the want button, it doesn't mean every time someone is looking to buy but certainly a lot more frequency to that. i think they're definitely going to have it. could be quite possibly today. if not, could be coming soon. >> josh, do you own facebook? >> i do not own facebook. i'm not a big fan of the stock mainly because of the valuation. i recognize the potential. my question is really related to this concept of cyclicality. what we found out about google, especially in the last earnings report, is it turns out this is basically a very cyclical advertising business. no matter what they say the mix shift was. do we have that kind of worry
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with facebook where they need such a strong advertising climate, or are they taking enough share that that part doesn't matter yet? >> martin? >> i think right now -- it's a great question. for them it is a little bit more secular. if you go back to google in its early days, they created an industry that nobody had defined or worked with. advertisers were slow to embrace it. as they got into it, they realize how much power they'd have for targeting relevant ads. those same advertisers are looking at facebook with the same question, can we get the same uplift in the targeting? if you look right now, it's sort of facebook's game to lose. they should be able to convince advertisers and deliver targeted audience that's are relevant. i don't think they're in a cyclical nature. it's more secular. they still have a lot to execute on, and quite a few coming up that we'll benchmark them on. >> ahead on the halftime report, the s&p sees the biggest drop since june. we head to the pits to find out
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the overturn of the market is down. we'll see a steady decline. we've made the highs for the year. >> that was ceo tom demark on yesterday saying the market has peaked for 2012. >> there's cataclysmic for you. do i agree? i don't know. there's a couple of things that could occur over the next couple of weeks that could confirm. i don't know. what i do know now is what i said before. the pressure is on the bulls for the very first time. i don't think you step in here. i think you're patient. you wait. you've got apple's earnings on thursday. let's wait and hear that story. >> and you just saw on that chart, we're off now, the session lows for the s&p 500 and indeed for the nasdaq. still a lot ahead, of course, for everybody in the session. with stocks sliding today, what are the key levels investors are watching on the markets?
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cnbc's jackie deangelis has got her eye on how traders in the pits are playing today's brutal action. she's also the host of a new online show on cnbc.com called "futured n es now." jackie? >> the headline from the pits is clear, sell. the pain could get a lot worse, according to the charts. this is from oppenheimer. the s&p has broken through a major trend line. that's bad for stocks. so the big question, when will the selling ease? and is this a buying opportunity? let's go ahead and start talking futures. rachel is at the cme in chicago. anthony at the nymex in new york. anthony, let's start with you. where's the support in this market? >> you mentioned we broke through the major trend line, which we did. the next support is at 1400. after that, we could be 30, 40 levels lower. >> i agree with carter werth here. any rally in this market, i'm selling. s&p futures close above 1525.
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that's my line in the stand. before this move here started with google last week. you look at the trend, you're a seller now. >> anthony, give us the trade. how do we make money? >> i'm looking to sell the december s&p at 1425. put my stop in at 1440. and looking to buy it back at the 1387 level. >> you guys were just talking about this subject. jump in. >> anthony, do you think we've reached the highs for the year? >> simon, it certainly looks that way. we've had 30% reporting. the thing i'm seeing the most is the outlooks look terrible down the road. with the other 70%, certainly looks that way we have put in the highs. >> so now you know how our guys are making money in the commodities pits. what about you? are you buying or selling the dips in stocks? vote in our poll at cnbc.com. we'll reveal the results on our live streaming show today at 1:00 p.m. eastern. and you want to tune in for
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today's program because doug kass of sea breeze partners will be weighing in. plus we'll tell you how to trade the gold selloff. 1:00 p.m. today. >> thank you very much, jackie deangelis. still to come on the program, we are counting down to the apple ipad mini. the big event expected in less than 30 minutes. plus how you can make money right now even as stocks sell off session lows. and the dollar is on a tear this week. it all puts into the mix. we survey the damage on u.s. exporters. you heard it in earnings today.
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dow down 287. let's check the weakest sectors. materials, energy, and financials. there you see the materials sector. there you see the energy sector, down 2.5%. all, of course, cyclical in nature. concerns about global growth and therefore earnings really the headlines so far this tuesday. three stocks that are all higher on the down take today. and these are our top trades. yahoo rising on the back of better than expected third quarter results and a confident tone from its new ceo marisa meyer. bk, are you a buyer? >> i think you can be a buyer here in yahoo. i think the down side is certainly limited, and marisa meyer laid out a plan to have strategic acquisitions, maybe smaller companies, and really try to build up that search. if you believe she has the ability to do that, which the market is telling you she does, yeah, you could be a buyer of yahoo here. >> amongst the bellwethers
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reporting today, u.p.s. reports a throw in q3 profits. the stock, though, trading higher on increased domestic volume. does that surprise you, guy? >> i think it's trading higher because they didn't lower full year guidance. they narrowed full year guidance. revenue miss on this one. it's a relief rally, but i think you can trade it against yesterday's low, which by give or take was $71. it fell 71 a few times over the last couple of months. i think you trade it on the long side there. >> whirlpool a long time coming, getting a big pop today after easily beating earnings estimates and raising its full year guidance. >> and this is a stock that's been relatively strong recently. eps was good. north american margins wered goo. obviously, right now the buyers are in full force here. however, i'd be very cautious here with this spike. i'd look to take off some of the holdings if you are long. >> if you look broadbroadyly ac
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the market, jp morgan looking to buy into the trade here. that's based on your target for year end, of course. >> yes, and i think there's somewhat of a misreaction to earnings. i know we're going through the midst of a really big soft patch with earnings here, and china and european economic data is not great. but you have to remember, i think this is showing you companies are cautious. you can really see it in their cash balances, right? in the quarter, for instance, cash balances have grown 14% year over year. it's a record level now. we're probably going to end the quarter with the highest cash balances in history. and it means the end markets didn't slow. just companies were taking inventories down in front of the fiscal cliff and some uncertainty. >> there's two major concerns. one is decelerating growth around the world. that's showing up certainly today in the snapshot today and one is the fed. do you worry the fed put is
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dissolving? is >> no. i think that, when you look at fixed income markets and what's really happened in those markets, we are seeing such incredible tightness. high grade spreads, all time lows actually, at a time when the s&p is actually traded off. if you look at the high yield market, we're at nearly all time yield level lows. a 15.5 pe for the market. it shows me they're concerned about something the fixed income markets aren't seeing. >> does that allay the concerns you were expressing earlier, b.k.? >> not necessarily. it's all about what the market believes again. again, i would say, if the fed put is still there and the market wants to bite on that, fantastic. we're off to the races again, and the cycle begins. if you lose that fed put, i'm just not sure, based on the past earnings, maybe over the next couple of weeks we get some kind of catalyst out there i'm not seeing as of yet. i'm just saying, given the information i have now, i'd be a
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little more cautious. >> many ttom, one of the thingss interesting is as every guest comes on at the moment and they meet members of cnbc's staff, the conversation, as they come on there privately, is all about the election and what is happening with romney and what the implications are as to who wins. where are you on that as a house? >> i think in general, it's better to talk intermediate and long term because short term dynamics are harder to predict. i think it's really going to be viewed by investors as very pro markets if romney's elect, number one. >> even if it signals perhaps a longer term change in the fed and its ability to print money. >> yes, as long as there's offsets. i think there's some very credible arguments for why we may see changes at the fed. i'm not sure that's going to be romney's first acted office. >> official. >> but i think it's going to have to be balanced sort of with what the private sector will do and what concessions we're making to the private sector. one of the big stories in the last five years is companies just have mountains and mountains of cash and liquidity, and they could drive this
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expansion. >> tom, you're very respected on the street, equally as respected as david koss at goldman sachs. david's got a 1250 price target on the s&p year end, and one of the things he's highlighting is the uncertainty surrounding the fiscal cliff. why are you so confident that 1250 call is inaccurate? what do you see that he doesn't? >> if we do see 1250, you can't rule anything out, right? because a couple of bad things could happen. it would cause a significant divergence between what equities are doing. you would say the entire market, which is larger than equities, needs to capitulate, blow out spreads to justify stocks collapsing 200 points. who's been buying in these markets? hedge funds have been deproportionally derisking.
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we're not seeing the mutual funds buy this dip yet. remember if corporate cash is at a record level today, normally fourth quarter is when you hit record cash, they're going to be under pressure to put this cash to work. >> let's bottom line it. you have three stocks to own now, i believe. >> many. i think you guys want to just chat about a few. >> if we could, yes, please. >> we think the way -- if you want to buy this dip, i want to buy blue chip, high quality branded names with good margins, decent -- really, really good market share. it's names like apple, starbucks, and then i think a name that maybe the public is not as familiar with is american tower, which is probably one of the best business models in the world. >> as a cash generator. >> cash generatogenerator, no m parts. piece of metal and pricing power. >> tom lee joining us, chief u.s. equity strategist for jp morgan. >> let's trade this. josh, i think you wanted to come in on that conversation. obviously, you were moved by what you heard. >> i really disagree with the
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thesis that mr. lee puts forth wherein people should buy the riskiest stocks because those are the ones that managers will use to get ahead. he mentions in his notes, 64 points mutual fund managers are behind the indices. i don't think that's a very good idea. as evidence of that, i would look at today, for l examinexam morgan stanley index of stocks is down worse than the regular indices and the regular index. i would kiss disagree. i would avoid those areas just because you think someone dumber is going to come in behind you. this is not going to work if earnings news continues at this rate. >> let's continue to trade round the horn. brian kelly. >> i think, if you look at american tower, that's the one pick that i actually like there that tom was talking about. no matter what happens, the cell phone is such an incredible utility now. it's the last thing anybody's going to get rid of on the economic downturn. and if the economy continues to chug along, people are still
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going to use it, and the explosion of data over the air waves is really what's driving this stock. >> it's certainly got a good chart. guys, when halftime returns, we're in countdown mode. the ipad mini and what it could look like still ahead. for sure we're going to see it. we're live from the apple event. and dupont having its worst day in more than two years. what the stronger dollar has to do with that. [ male announcer ] you are a business pro. governor of getting it done. you know how to dance... with a deadline. and you...rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle... and go. you can even take a full-size or above, and still pay the mid-size price. this is awesome. [ male announcer ] yes, it is, business pro. yes, it is. go national. go like a pro.
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coming up in the next hour of "power lunch," we are, of course, tracking the selloff. the dow had its biggest drop during "power lunch "in the last three days. apple expected to unveil its mini ipad during a special event. stocks down, but facebook is higher ahead of earnings. the two biggest issues facing that tech darling. and the fed kicks off a two-day meeting. former fed chief alan greenspan joins us live to talk about the economy, qe3, and the markets. now back to simon on the fast money halftime report. >> that is a huge show today, tyler. thank you very much. power lunch ahead in just 15 minutes. let's have a look at where we are on the market. only two members of the dow 30 are actually showing green, intel and microsoft, and then only just materials. energy appear to be extending their losses. meantime, what's getting the most buzz today on twitter?
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seema mody has more on your tweets. >> hi there, simon. the twittersphere is reacting to the selloff that we're seeing. let's get you the responses from our cnbc "fast money" fans. tony is tweeting, it's still on october, and i'm staying on the sidelines until veterans day, with i is november 11th. guy adami, given the macro-uncertainty in the markets, do you agree with this strategy? >> 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month. the end of world war i, simon, in case you need a history lesson. that's a good idea. sometimes just taking a break, taking a breather, going out and having fun with your kids. good idea. veterans day is as good as i've seen. >> and that's from the seventh son of the seventh son. take notes. >> traders trying to figure out how to take advantage of the big moves in the vix. the vix is up 30% over the last two days. b.k., heading into the election, will the fair index continue to move higher? if so, what's the trade on the
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vix? >> i always find the vix itself very hard to trade. i think you're better off using low volatility. we're still at relatively low volatility. to buy protection, buy those puts. we're still at 16 on the vix, 16 on the s&p futures volatility. that's still relatively low. if you have some kind of a bearish stance, by some puts, protect your position, and if not, then i would not trade the vix itself. it's just too wonky of an index. >> but buy some puts and protect yourself that way. let's get to the next tweet. one sector that is getting hit. biotech. elliott wants to know if the biotech bubble is about to pop. josh, this index has run up 30% just this year. is it time to just wipe your hands and book profits? >> we've been long the xbi, which is the equal weight biotech index. we actually would be adding -- we want to watch and see if it holds 85, which was the support level from august. i think it's important to play this sector on an equal weighted
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business, not try to pick which company is going to have the next hot drug because it's a really dangerous game if you don't have enough money to really diversify. i would just work with the etf, and we like it at these levels in the mid-80s. >> and 85 is your support level. thanks, josh. >> all right, guys, thank you very much. let's get the biggest pops and drops in midday trading. kick off with a p ddrop, wester digital, wtc, drops, guy. >> it was i down a lot more earlier. the reversal is interesting. it closes at 35, 35.5. all of a sudden, this stock looks interesting after the earnings day. today was the capitulation day for wdc. >> regions financial, rf. >> it was down almost 8% at one point. net interest margins not good. expense management, they're not doing it well also. this is a name that i have suggested to own throughout
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2012. it has worked up until this point. i still think you stay in the name. >> a pop in a down market, harley davidson, hog, coming through with good gains today, b.k. >> yes. still selling those hogs out there, simon. i would say, if you are long this stock and you got this nice pop, kudos to you, but take a little bit off the table here and go out and buy yourself a new bike. >> one more pop. ryder, r, pop 6%. >> net income up 33%, and they raised their outlook. this reminds me what we saw with united rentals. i like this name. i don't want to chase it on a day like today, but i wish there were more companies like ryder that seem to be getting everything right. >> thank you, guys. coming up next on cnbc, our own brian sullivan is at the apple event in san jose. brian? >> simon, thank you very much. all right. we are minutes away from the big apple event starting. everybody is inside at the california theater behind me, and we have got tv inflation because we've got john forte
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inside, i'm outside, we're going to bring you all the headlines as they cross. apple nearly 5% of the s&p 500, even more of the of the s & p 500, more than the nasdaq 100, it is an important company, an important event. that's why i walked to california last night. just for cnbc and you. a lot more over the next couple of hours. don't you go anywhere. we are back after this. [ male announcer ] the markets keep moving. make sure the news keeps coming with thinkorswim by td ameritrade. use the news links breaking stories with possible breakout stocks,
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apple leading the market,
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slightly higher from the base of the selloff we had, of course, earlier in the session. the nasdaq 100 following, and of course, a al huge story over the next few minutes as we get the launch of the new ipad mini. then, facebook, of course, later on today. a stronger u.s. dollar hurting exporters and industrials alike today. due pop the is a name that mainly springs to mind but others into the earnings fray. paul richards joining us, managing director at ubs live from stanford. welcome to the program, sir. do you -- where does the dollar trade from here? what is the outlook there for the currency effects? >> >> the thing you need to keep in mind, the market is blaming the dollar on earnings. the euro three months ago was 120. now closer to 130 that is an 8% depreciation of the dollar versus the euro and 5% depreciation of the dollar index. first and foremost, be careful we are not backward looking here and 130 exporters are absolutely
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breathing a sigh of relief. from here, i think it depends on the election in two weeks and what is spain gonna do? give me another two or three weeks and i will definitively be able to answer that question. there is a lot of uncertainty. >> interesting you frame the dollar automatically as eurodollar and not the rest of the world. where do you think the green back will trade with america owes other trading partners? >> in the case of dollar yen, trades higher. the one country that has a true policy of easing is japan. meet -- boj meets next tuesday. they've 1% inflation target, inflation is running at minus .3% year on year. i think the boj is going to ease next tuesday. i would definitely be buying the dollar against the yen. >> paul, it's joe. let me ask you, do you believe right now, we have a carry trade that exists, is there a funding currency you can point to? >> a good question. the dollar, to an extent, is a funding trade but the market is very focused on europe. but i think draghi put doubt
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into this one. put it this way, created an environment which spain now needs to move this is a really tough one to spain though. i think the market is running out of patience. >> three weeks. >> paul let me quickly say to you, if there is no carry trade curre currently, isn't there a problem for u.s. gases? >> in that environment, when there's nothing obvious the market will default to the dollar n that environment, if the market is running to the dollar, they have uncertainty about risks a is sets and global growth in general. yes, off problem with global asset he is. >> which way do you think the dollar will move on the election next week -- the week after next, forgive me? >> give the outcome, hard to position. i think the dollar rallies because we see u.s. treasury selloff. the ten year could go 2.25, 2.30 on a romney victory versus obama, i think we see the ten-year trend back to 165, 170, the dollar depreciates slightly. the risk is more for the dollar on a romney ving try.
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>> what is your favorite currency? >> dollar yen. >> because of the intervention? >> absolutely. given the fact they will print more money. and that is as soon as next week. >> 1810 is the level. >> you buy on a dip to 7950. the target is 82-plus. i definitely buy a dollar yen. >> good see you, paul, thank you for your time. paul richards joining us there from ubs in stanford. the next hour on cnbc, a big hour, former fed chief alan green span will join power lunch live about 24 hours before the fed decision. his thoughts on the recovery and the bernanke put, is it dissolving? one of the big questions of the day. but first, final trades next on the "halftime report." [ horn honks ] hey, it's sandra -- from accounting. peter. i can see that you're busy...
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